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SocGen: Expectations Of Flatter Easing Trajectory In 2023 Strengthen

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  • Apart from retaining the hawkish operative paragraph, the BCB also raised its inflation forecasts again and also through the policy horizon. Inflation is still seen as converging with the BCB target in 2024, as per the new forecasts, but the continued rise in inflation forecasts for both 2023 and 2024 suggests that inflation uncertainty is mostly playing in one direction (upward risks materialising).
  • On the growth front, the statement noted the deceleration seen both during 3Q22 and in recent months. There were some additional references to the fiscal outlook compared with the October statement.
  • Broadly, the December Copom statement together with higher inflation forecasts, raises the risk that the easing cycle might not begin very soon (SG current forecast is March 2023).
  • SocGen currently project an end-2023 Selic rate of 11.00%, which is now considerably below that of the 11.75% consensus forecast. And by implicitly implying a flatter-than-expected easing cycle, the December statement clearly raises upside risks to their end-2023 Selic rate forecast.
  • On the other hand, however, their end-2024 Selic rate forecast is 9.0% vs the consensus forecast of 8.5%.
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