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SocGen Pushes Back Timing Of BoJ YCC Shift

BOJ

SocGen has pushed back the timing of its YCC shift to September from July, see below for more details.

  • "To date, we expected that the BoJ could widen the range of fluctuation permitted on 10- year JGB yields from ±50bp to ±100bp in July (link). However, an upward revision to the inflation outlook in July is unlikely to be a reason to widen the range. Moreover, there will not be enough time to gather evidence that market functioning is deteriorating again by the end of July. Therefore, we change our BoJ call to no YCC tweak in July. However, we still think that the BoJ could widen the range in September, if 10-year JGB yields once again sticks at 0.5%, the shape of the yield curve is distorted again and BoJ’s bond market survey announced on 1st September deteriorates again, depending on Japan inflation expectation and US rates."
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