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Softer Commodities, Accelerating Equity Outflows Weigh On Rupiah

IDR

Spot UDS/IDR has added 35 figs to last trade at IDR14,933, printing best levels since late Jul this morning amid intensified outflows from Indonesian stocks. Bulls now set their sights on Jul 22 high of IDR15,038. Bears see Sep 12 low of IDR14,818 & the 100-DMA at IDR14,773 as their initial targets.

  • A slip in USD/IDR 1-month NDF signals weakness in topside momentum driving the spot rate. With 1-month NDF last -19 figs at IDR14,942, bears look for losses past the 100-DMA at IDR14,808, while bulls would be pleased by a rebound above Sep 13 high of IDR14,992.
  • Foreign investors shed a net $266.8mn of Indonesian stocks Thursday, the largest daily outflow since Aug 3. Jakarta Comp climbed to fresh record highs but then pulled back and remains heavy as trading re-opened on Friday. The index sits 0.7% lower at typing.
  • Palm oil futures faltered Thursday amid lingering concerns over a supply glut in top two producers Indonesia and Malaysia. Trading in Kuala Lumpur is closed today due to a Malaysian national holiday. The broader commodity complex (as tracked by the aggregate BBG index) is slightly softer after posting a notable drop Thursday.
  • Danareksa Consumer Confidence may hit the wires as soon as today.
  • Bank Indonesia is expected to lift the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate at its next monetary policy meeting on Thursday.

Fig. 1: Indonesia Stock Exchange Net Foreign Stocks Investment

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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