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As widely expected, the RBNZ held the policy rate at 5.50%. The statement was fairly balanced - risks to the outlook similar to the last MPS in August for inflation, output and employment. It was perhaps not as hawkish as the market was looking for. Market odds of a November hike were elevated prior to today's decision. The RBNZ noted inflation is still expected to decline within the target band by H2 2024, but it also recognized that policy may need to stay restrictive for a more sustained period of time.

  • NZD/USD has been sold post the meeting outcome. The pair is right on Tuesday lows, sub 0.5890. Prior to the outcome we were closer to 0.5920.
  • A fresh break lower could see September lows around 0.5860 targeted.
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