MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Some Analysts Nudge Up Rate Calls Post BoC

CANADA

Initial analyst reactions see CIBC and RBC, at the low end of the analyst terminal rate spectrum, now nudge up/see upside risk to their terminal rate forecast.

  • CIBC: “We took note that the final paragraph opted to retain the view that “interest rates will need to rise further.” We’ll therefore be lifting our target for the end of this tightening cycle, with another 25-50 bps on tap for October” [i.e. a terminal 3.5% or 3.75%].
  • RBC: “Today’s meeting suggests upside risk to our call for a 25bp hike in Oct to a peak 3.50%.”
  • At the hawkish end, ING: Sticking to view of 4% policy rate by year-end (75bps over two meetings), looking for cuts in late 2023
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