Some attention on the Q4 French ILO..........>

FRANCE: Some attention on the Q4 French ILO unemployment rate today as it fell

from 9.4% to 8.6% (seasonally adjusted) and well below consensus of 9.3%. This

would be the lowest unemployment rate since 2009. 

- It is a big drop and its worth highlighting that the estimation within +/-0.3

point of the level of unemployment rate and of its quarterly variations. 

- The biggest decline was a 1.5pp decline in males aged 15-24Y to 21.4%.

- Inactive people who wished to work but are not considered unemployed (by ILO

definition) saw a rise of 77,000 in Q4 2017 and might explain a small amount of

the sudden drop in the ILO unemployment rate. However, employment is rising

quickly and by 0.6pp in Q4 relative to 3 to 60.9%, even if much of the

improvement was in temporary and part-time.

- Interestingly, according to INSEE "the employment rate of the population aged

15-64 years stood at 65.7%, its highest level since the early 1980s"