Some UAE Officials Mull If OPEC Membership In LT Interest-Energy Intel

Energy Intel has published an article (no paywall)claiming that some officials in the UAE are mulling whether OPEC membership remains in the state's best long-term interest.

• Important to note that the article stresses these are early stage, hypothetical, 'outside the box' questions at present, with no suggestion the UAE will fully examine its OPEC membership any time soon.
• The article states that "[...]some UAE officials have also started privately to ask hard questions about whether Opec membership remains in the country's longer-term interest, given a challenged outlook for oil demand and a need to monetize oil resources to avoid stranded assets. The UAE has long been one of the most committed and compliant Opec members. But current Opec production curbs sit awkwardly with Abu Dhabi's plan to expand oil production capacity by some 1 million barrels per day by 2030."
• "Questions surrounding the UAE's participation in Opec are understood to involve a hypothetical examination of options at this stage. It is unclear how deeply the concerns run, and whether they largely reflect dissatisfaction with recent decisions and practices by Opec-plus or positioning for a better deal from Opec next year."
• From a geopolitical standpoint the withdrawal of the UAE from OPEC would signal a major step-change in Middle Eastern relations. If the UAE were to withdraw from OPEC, it would be viewed as a massive snub to Saudi Arabia at a time when Riyadh is engaged in a long-term struggle with Iran for regional dominance, as well as an increasingly assertive Turkey.
• Following its recognition of the state of Israel (brokered by outgoing US President Donald Trump), a hypothetical non-OPEC UAE would likely seek closer links with the US and the West in an effort to accelerate the broadening of the Emirates' economic base away from hydrocarbon reliance.