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ASIA FX: Some USD/Asia Pairs Firmer In SEA, IDR Outperforms, MAS Tomorrow

ASIA FX

In South East Asia FX, we have seen a pause around recent USD softness. Most USD/Asia pairs are slightly higher in the region, although IDR is outperforming marginally. USD/JPY is higher, while yuan is also slightly softer, with tariff fears lurking in the background. 

  • Tomorrow we have the MAS policy announcement in Singapore. The consensus is for no changed but we see risks of an on hold outcome. Earlier Dec inflation data was slightly above market forecasts but still sub 2% y/y for headline and core. USD/SGD is slightly higher today, last near 1.3560/65. The SGD NEER per Goldman Sachs estimates, was -1.31% from the top of the band, slightly wider versus earlier levels this week.
  • USD/THB sits higher, last in the 33.90/95 region. We are 0.35% weaker in baht terms, but the pair is still sub all key EMAs. Thailand’s December customs trade deficit narrowed significantly more than expected printing at $11mn following $224mn. Export growth picked up to 8.7% y/y from 8.2% and imports to 14.9% from 0.9%. When smoothed for monthly volatility both are running at 10.5% y/y 3-month moving average.
  • USD/IDR is slightly lower, last under 16250. The pair is edging away from recent highs close to 16400. Seasonality is using stronger for IDR in Jan, which may be playing a role. The central is also preparing for an expanded lock in in terms of export earnings to further boost FX defence.
  • USD/PHP sits up a touch, but at 58.60 is comfortably within recent ranges. 
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In South East Asia FX, we have seen a pause around recent USD softness. Most USD/Asia pairs are slightly higher in the region, although IDR is outperforming marginally. USD/JPY is higher, while yuan is also slightly softer, with tariff fears lurking in the background. 

  • Tomorrow we have the MAS policy announcement in Singapore. The consensus is for no changed but we see risks of an on hold outcome. Earlier Dec inflation data was slightly above market forecasts but still sub 2% y/y for headline and core. USD/SGD is slightly higher today, last near 1.3560/65. The SGD NEER per Goldman Sachs estimates, was -1.31% from the top of the band, slightly wider versus earlier levels this week.
  • USD/THB sits higher, last in the 33.90/95 region. We are 0.35% weaker in baht terms, but the pair is still sub all key EMAs. Thailand’s December customs trade deficit narrowed significantly more than expected printing at $11mn following $224mn. Export growth picked up to 8.7% y/y from 8.2% and imports to 14.9% from 0.9%. When smoothed for monthly volatility both are running at 10.5% y/y 3-month moving average.
  • USD/IDR is slightly lower, last under 16250. The pair is edging away from recent highs close to 16400. Seasonality is using stronger for IDR in Jan, which may be playing a role. The central is also preparing for an expanded lock in in terms of export earnings to further boost FX defence.
  • USD/PHP sits up a touch, but at 58.60 is comfortably within recent ranges.