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SONIA Little Changed, Just Under 40bp Of Cuts Priced Through Year End

STIR
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

SONIA futures are essentially flat.

  • BoE-dated OIS still fully discounts the next 25bp cut come the end of the Nov MPC, with ~39bp of easing showing through the Dec meeting.
  • A reminder that recent BoE speak has refrained from committing to further easing, limiting dovish spill over from U.S. STIRs.
  • Little to add on the news flow front, with Nvidia earnings dominating since yesterday’s close.
  • The local calendar is empty until tomorrow.
  • That means that wider macro releases are set to drive things today, with German & Spanish CPI due this morning.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-244.914-3.7
Nov-244.698-25.3
Dec-244.559-39.1
Feb-254.362-58.8
Mar-254.223-72.7
May-254.061-88.9
Jun-253.972-97.8
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SONIA futures are essentially flat.

  • BoE-dated OIS still fully discounts the next 25bp cut come the end of the Nov MPC, with ~39bp of easing showing through the Dec meeting.
  • A reminder that recent BoE speak has refrained from committing to further easing, limiting dovish spill over from U.S. STIRs.
  • Little to add on the news flow front, with Nvidia earnings dominating since yesterday’s close.
  • The local calendar is empty until tomorrow.
  • That means that wider macro releases are set to drive things today, with German & Spanish CPI due this morning.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-244.914-3.7
Nov-244.698-25.3
Dec-244.559-39.1
Feb-254.362-58.8
Mar-254.223-72.7
May-254.061-88.9
Jun-253.972-97.8