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SONIA Markets Little Changed, 43bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced

STIR

SONIA futures are essentially unchanged vs. settlement through the blues, with a recovery in wider core global FI markets leading contracts away from yesterday’s lows.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~9bp of cuts for the Sep MPC and ~43bp of easing through year end, little changed vs. yesterday.
  • Broader risk sentiment will continue to dominate GBP markets ahead of the weekend, with the UK calendar limited until next week’s labour market (Tuesday) & CPI (Wednesday) data.
  • Those data points will reinject some local impetus, particularly given the degree of easing priced into markets and with the BoE failing to commit to easing at consecutive meetings via its post-August meeting communique.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-244.860-9.0
Nov-244.658-29.2
Dec-244.520-43.0
Feb-254.326-62.4
Mar-254.192-75.8
May-254.025-92.5
Jun-253.939-101.1
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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