SOUTH AFRICA: ANC Vote Share Falls Below Crucial 42% Mark w/55.6% Counted

The South African electoral commission has resumed updating its election portal, which now shows President Cyril Ramaphosa's African National Congress (ANC) sitting on 41.86% support with 55.63% of ballots counted. Crucially, this falls below the 42% mark that may have allowed the ANC to form a governing coalition with smaller parties at the national level that would have supported policy continuity and political stability. 

• While there is still a substantial number of votes left to be verified, ANC support remaining around this level could necessitate the formation of a gov't with either the liberal Democratic Allliance (DA) - currently running in second place with 23.67% support - the populist uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) of former President Jacob Zuma, or the extreme-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). A gov't involving either of the latter two parties would risk a sharp leftward turn in policy formation. 
• As noted in our previous bullet (see 'SOUTH AFRICA: Incoming Election Results Offer No Repreive To ANC', 0737BST), the strength of MK in Kwa-Zulu Natal province - Zuma's home region - comes as a major blow to ANC prospects.
• For MK, the price of supporting the ANC could prove to be the removal of Ramaphosa as party leader and president. Zuma has faced numerous charges of corruption since leaving office, and relations between the two former ANC comrades have fully broken down.