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SOUTH AFRICA: Below-Forecast Inflation Cements Case For SARB Cut

SOUTH AFRICA
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion

Statistics SA released CPI data which showed that headline inflation eased below the mid-point of the SARB's official +3-6% Y/Y target range. While Governor Lesetja Kganyago has been pushing for a lower point-target of +3%, the central bank repeatedly flagged its current focus on the +4.5% mid-point of the existing target range. The moderation of headline inflation below the consensus forecast and below the target mid-point cements the case for a rate cut tomorrow.

  • CPI +4.4% Y/Y (BBG est. +4.5%)
  • CPI +0.1% M/M (BBG est. +0.2%)
  • Core CPI +4.1% Y/Y (BBG est. +4.2%)
  • Core CPI 0.0% M/M (BBG est. +0.2%)
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Statistics SA released CPI data which showed that headline inflation eased below the mid-point of the SARB's official +3-6% Y/Y target range. While Governor Lesetja Kganyago has been pushing for a lower point-target of +3%, the central bank repeatedly flagged its current focus on the +4.5% mid-point of the existing target range. The moderation of headline inflation below the consensus forecast and below the target mid-point cements the case for a rate cut tomorrow.

  • CPI +4.4% Y/Y (BBG est. +4.5%)
  • CPI +0.1% M/M (BBG est. +0.2%)
  • Core CPI +4.1% Y/Y (BBG est. +4.2%)
  • Core CPI 0.0% M/M (BBG est. +0.2%)