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Sovereign Rating Outlook Cut To Negative at Moody's, BanRep Rate Decision

COLOMBIA
  • Colombia’s Baa2 credit rating outlook was cut to negative by Moody’s, citing the impact of lower-than-expected growth and higher borrowing costs on the government’s fiscal position.
  • Meanwhile, analysts appear in agreement that BanRep will cut the overnight rate by 50bp to 11.25% today, as core CPI inflation continues to decline, albeit in a gradual manner (1900BST/1400ET). The committee is expected to maintain a cautious/hawkish tone amid an increasingly challenging fiscal backdrop, COP depreciation, tight global financial conditions and above-target inflation expectations. Consistent rhetoric from Finance Minister Bonilla on the need for bolder easing strengthens the likelihood of another split vote.
    • The full MNI preview with analyst views is here.
  • Before the rate decision, May unemployment data will be published at 1600BST(1100ET). Consensus there is for the urban unemployment rate to edge up to 10.5%, from 10.3%. Separately, President Gustavo Petro will speak at an event organised by the association of public service companies Andesco in Cartagena at 2250BST(1750ET).
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