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Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
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The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) retain their lead over the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the latest FGW poll ahead of the 26 September federal election.
- Germany, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll: SPD: 25% (+3), CDU/CSU: 22%, Green: 17% (-3), AfD: 11%, FDP: 11% (+1), LINKE: 7% (+1). +/- vs. 24-26 Aug. Fieldwork: 31 August - 2 September 2021. Sample size: 1,301
- The close nature of the polls combined with Germany's complex electoral system and seat distribution method makes projecting potential coalitions a difficult prospect, but at present 3-party coalitions remain the only possible way to reach a majority in the Bundestag based on current polling.
- The Jamaica (CDU-Green-FDP) and 'traffic light' (SPD, Green, FDP) coalitions seem the most likely outcomes at present, although Kenya (SPD-CDU-Green), Germany (SPD-CDU-FDP) and Red-Green-Red (SPD-Green-Linke) coalitions remain possibilities.