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Spot USD/KRW Wedged Within Recent Ranges On Conflicting Drivers

KRW

Spot USD/KRW ended extended Thursday trade at 1377.4, contained within a 1375/1380 range for the session. The 1 month NDF ended NY trade near 1371.5, so slightly lower. This likely reflected the surge in US equities through US trade. Still, the 1 month NDF remains comfortably within recent ranges.

  • Spot USD/KRW may see some early downside today, but more broadly the pair is wedged by conflicting macro drivers.
  • The surge in US equity sentiment through Thursday trade, as the dip in initial jobless claims appeared to lower recession fears, was a positive. The SOX rallied nearly 7%, the MSCI IT up just over 3%. This sets up a positive day for local equities today. To recap, the Kospi fell 0.4% yesterday, with offshore investors sell -$519.7mn local shares.
  • The firmer US yield backdrop, coupled with weaker yen and CNH levels, is working to offset the positive equity tone for the won though
  • For spot USD/KRW, we would expect upside selling interest to emerge on a move above 1380. We also remain sub the 100 (near 1368) and 200-day (near 1354.5) EMAs. Such ranges may continue to hold given the conflicting macro backdrop.
  • The local data calendar remains empty until next week.
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