Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have steadily chipped away at yesterday’s rally seen after US CPI and retail sales.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1.5bp Jun, 8.5bp Jul, 23bp Sep, 33bp Nov and 49bp Dec.
- The September implied rate is down just 1bp since pre-CPI/retail, and the Dec rate is down 2.5bp – see table.
- Today sees a heavy docket for second tier data releases, with weekly jobless claims likely looked at most closely after initially claims surprisingly increased to their highest since Aug’23 in last week’s release.
- For Fedspeak, NY Fed’s Williams (voter) told Reuters in an interview earlier that April CPI was a “positive development” for inflation dynamics but he doesn’t see a need for a rate cut in the near term.
- Ahead, we watch three ’24 voters for their latest economic outlook:
- 1000ET VC Supervision Barr (voter) testifies to Senate after House yesterday (incl text)
- 1000ET Barkin (’24) CNBC interview. He said May 10 that the current economy calls for a deliberate, patient approach whilst he's looking for inflation progress to sustain and broaden.
- 1030ET Harker (non-voter) on economic impact of higher education and healthcare (incl text)
- 1200ET Mester (’24 retiring June) speaks on economic outlook (incl text). She said May 14 (after PPI, before CPI) that policy is in a good place to deal with a range of risks but is not eager to consider rate hikes.
- 1550ET Bostic (’24) in moderated chat on economy. He said May 10 that he sees a single 25bp cut in 2024.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok