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Stellantis (STLA Baa1/BBB+/BBB+[P]): 2Q24 Preview

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • Stellantis reports 1H24 results on Thursday.
  • Quarterly releases are sales figures only, so 1Q was light on detail. Revenue missed by 5% but FY24 guidance was confirmed, with destocking ahead of new launches cited as a non-recurring drag. Inventory reduction was a positive at least given concerns on buildup there.
  • FY24 operating profit consensus was fallen around 7% since. Hopes of a H2 recovery in Europe have been questioned; Stellantis generates 35% of its revenue there.
  • Spreads have underperformed the sector over 3 months, largely due tight starting valuations. Management also announced it will return some of the Covid cash buffer to shareholders at the investor day in June.
  • Margin outlook is the key metric to watch; risks could arise from the need to destock inventory further and questions over a 2H recovery.

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