November 17, 2023 14:22 GMT
Still Comfortably Higher On The Week, Even With Tsy Yields Paring Most Of Early Move Lower
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The softer USD-lower Tsy yield combination seen earlier saw spot gold trade as high as $1,993.5/oz.
- That was before a reversal in yields factored into a pull away from best levels in bullion, although spot is still ~$45/oz firmer on the week, printing at $1,985/oz as of typing.
- The mix of this week’s macro data, headlined by U.S. CPI, as well as technical breaks in core global bond yields and FOMC end of ’24 rate pricing registering a fresh multi-month low (a little over 100bp of cuts was priced into the Fed Fund futures strip through ’24 earlier today, although that is now closer to 95bp) supported bullion this week.
- As a result, gold has managed to reverse a fair chunk of the losses that came alongside the removal of the Israeli-Hamas ‘war premium’ in recent weeks.
- Technically, the trend condition in gold remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend cycle. A stronger resumption of gains would open $2,022.20/oz, the May 15 high, with the bull trigger at $2,009.4/oz providing some intermediate protection. Bears need to force a convincing break of the 50-day EMA ($1,941.8/oz today) to start turning the tide.