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STIR: 100bp Of Fed Cuts To Year-End, Waller Set For Post-NFP Reaction

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates hold onto yesterday’s lift on consumption-led GDP revisions and jobless claims ruling out an increase, with the path remaining within recent ranges.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 33bp Sep, 66bp Nov, 100bp Dec, 129bp Jan and 190bp June.
  • Monthly PCE headlines today’s docket: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/67048/USPCEPrevAug2024.pdf
  • There’s no Fedspeak scheduled for today but note that Gov. Waller (voter) has been added to the calendar for a post-payrolls reaction next Friday.
  • NY Fed’s Williams (voter) was already down to give keynote remarks at 0845ET but that was just 15mins after the release. Waller’s speech on the economic outlook at 1100ET gives more time to react and put across what’s likely the Fed’s final steer before the blackout starting that night ahead of the Sep 17-18 FOMC decision (media reports notwithstanding).

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