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About Us
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: ECB Expected To Cut Rates Later
MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: A$ & Local Yields Surge Following Jobs Data
STIR: 68bps of ECB Easing Priced Through Year-End Ahead Of PMIs, Wage Data.
ECB-dated OIS price 68bps of easing through the remainder of 2024, ahead of today’s key regional macro releases. Today’s data are unlikely to shift expectations for a September cut though, with OIS still fully pricing a second 25bp cut of this year at that gathering.
- The August flash PMI round begins with France at 0815BST/0915CET, before the German and the Eurozone-wide prints land at 0830BST and 0900BST respectively. The Eurozone-wide composite PMI is expected to be little changed at 50.1 (vs 50.2 prior).
- Growth data have been in focus since the ECB’s July decision, where President Lagarde emphasised downside risks to activity data.
- Q2 negotiated wages are also due at 1000BST. See further details here: https://marketnews.com/eurozone-data-wide-range-of-estimates-for-q2-negotiated-wages-on-thursday
- Euribor futures are flat to +1.5 ticks through the blues versus yesterday’s settlement, with core FI retracing around half of the post-FOMC minutes sell-off overnight.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Sep-24 | 3.412 | -25.1 |
Oct-24 | 3.276 | -38.7 |
Dec-24 | 2.979 | -68.4 |
Jan-25 | 2.791 | -87.2 |
Mar-25 | 2.561 | -110.2 |
Apr-25 | 2.428 | -123.5 |
Jun-25 | 2.266 | -139.7 |
Jul-25 | 2.193 | -147.0 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.