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STIR: Circa 100bp Of Fed Cuts Over Three Meetings

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have lifted ~1bp overnight but mostly hold yesterday’s steady decline seen either side of a helping hand from softer than expected Canadian core CPI.  
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 33.5bp Sep, 64bp Nov, 99bp Dec, 124bp Jan and 185bp Jun. 
  • The near enough full pricing of 100bp of cuts over the three remaining meetings compares with almost 110bps ahead of last week’s retail sales and jobless claims beats. 
  • It comes ahead of today’s preliminary payrolls benchmark revisions (1000ET, preview) and the FOMC minutes (1400ET). Both should be seen in context of jobless claims and flash PMIs tomorrow before Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday (1000ET, preview). 

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