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STIR: Early Hawkish Adjustment Sticks

STIR
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BoE-dated OIS remain little changed to 10bp less dovish through November ’25, with the bulk of the adjustments coming around the open.

  • That leaves 23bp of cuts priced for November ’24, 36bp of cuts showing through year-end and 95bp of easing priced through June ’25.
  • SONIA futures have recovered from session lows after most contracts registered the lowest levels seen since July/August during this morning’s sell off, last flat to -9.0.
  • UK headline flow has been very limited since the open, with wider core global FI markets remaining under pressure, limiting any dovish moves in GBP STIRs.

BoE Meeting

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BoE-dated OIS remain little changed to 10bp less dovish through November ’25, with the bulk of the adjustments coming around the open.

  • That leaves 23bp of cuts priced for November ’24, 36bp of cuts showing through year-end and 95bp of easing priced through June ’25.
  • SONIA futures have recovered from session lows after most contracts registered the lowest levels seen since July/August during this morning’s sell off, last flat to -9.0.
  • UK headline flow has been very limited since the open, with wider core global FI markets remaining under pressure, limiting any dovish moves in GBP STIRs.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less