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STIR: Easily Less Than 25bp Of Cuts Priced For Nov, Fedspeak Ahead

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have extended overnight increases through the US session, aided by further increases in oil futures which built on regional reaction to Friday’s payrolls report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 21.5bp Nov, 48bp Dec, 68bp Jan and 119bp June.
  • There is now just 21.5bp of cuts priced for the Nov 7 FOMC, with at least a small possibility of a November ‘skip’ weighing even if analysts saw it as very unlikely – see the MNI Employment Insight here (see pg 9 onwards): https://media.marketnews.com/US_Employment_Report_Oct2024_addf4d7772.pdf
  • The little less than 50bp of cumulative cuts to year-end for now hovers close to the median dot from last month’s SEP.
  • Today’s Fedspeak is starting to get underway for some post-payrolls updates. Gov. Bowman (hawk, dissenter) is talking at a banking event hawk, before Kashkari (non-voter) in a Q&A at 1350ET. Later on sees Bostic (’24) at 1800ET and then Musalem (’25) likely going into the most detail with a speech on the economy and policy but not until 1830ET.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have extended overnight increases through the US session, aided by further increases in oil futures which built on regional reaction to Friday’s payrolls report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 21.5bp Nov, 48bp Dec, 68bp Jan and 119bp June.
  • There is now just 21.5bp of cuts priced for the Nov 7 FOMC, with at least a small possibility of a November ‘skip’ weighing even if analysts saw it as very unlikely – see the MNI Employment Insight here (see pg 9 onwards): https://media.marketnews.com/US_Employment_Report_Oct2024_addf4d7772.pdf
  • The little less than 50bp of cumulative cuts to year-end for now hovers close to the median dot from last month’s SEP.
  • Today’s Fedspeak is starting to get underway for some post-payrolls updates. Gov. Bowman (hawk, dissenter) is talking at a banking event hawk, before Kashkari (non-voter) in a Q&A at 1350ET. Later on sees Bostic (’24) at 1800ET and then Musalem (’25) likely going into the most detail with a speech on the economy and policy but not until 1830ET.