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STIR: ECB Expected To Cut 25bps Today, Focus On Guidance & Projections

STIR
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The ECB are unanimously expected to cut the deposit rate by 25bps to 3.50% today, with focus on the policy guidance and updated macroeconomic projections. ECB-dated OIS have essentially fully priced this outcome since the end of July.

  • The ECB decision is 1315BST/1415CET, with the press conference beginning at 1345BST.
  • We would not expect any signs of the ECB pre-committing to another cut in October as with inflation close to target there is no urgency to do so.
  • ECB-dated OIS nonetheless price a ~50% implied probability of a 25bp cut through October, in addition to a move at today’s meeting.
  • There are 63bps of easing priced through year-end, in line with recent ranges.
  • A reminder that the ECB will also narrow the corridor between its three key interest rates at the September meeting, following the bank's Framework Review in March.
  • Our full ECB preview is here.

 

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The ECB are unanimously expected to cut the deposit rate by 25bps to 3.50% today, with focus on the policy guidance and updated macroeconomic projections. ECB-dated OIS have essentially fully priced this outcome since the end of July.

  • The ECB decision is 1315BST/1415CET, with the press conference beginning at 1345BST.
  • We would not expect any signs of the ECB pre-committing to another cut in October as with inflation close to target there is no urgency to do so.
  • ECB-dated OIS nonetheless price a ~50% implied probability of a 25bp cut through October, in addition to a move at today’s meeting.
  • There are 63bps of easing priced through year-end, in line with recent ranges.
  • A reminder that the ECB will also narrow the corridor between its three key interest rates at the September meeting, following the bank's Framework Review in March.
  • Our full ECB preview is here.

 

Keep reading...Show less