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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI BRIEF: Ontario To Cut U.S. Energy Flows When Tariffs Hit
MNI BRIEF: Aussie Labour Market Tightens, Unemployment At 3.9%
MNI FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum
STIR: EUR Rates Slightly Lower; Makhlouf Leans Towards One More 2024 Cut
Euribor futures are flat to -2.0 through the blues but remain comfortably within yesterday’s range.
- ECB-dated OIS price 39bps of cuts through the remainder of this year, i.e. just over a 50% implied probability of 2x25bp rate cuts this year.
- Yesterday evening, ECB Makhlouf said that 2 more 2024 ECB cuts “is probably going a little bit too far”, though didn’t rule out such a move.
- Several ECB speakers are scheduled today, as the Sintra forum enters its final day.
- De Guindos, Cipollone and Lane will be chairing panels, while Knot and Lagarde will deliver remarks.
- June services PMIs (first prints for countries including Spain and Italy) headline today’s regional macro calendar, with several US data points also due this afternoon.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Jul-24 | 3.654 | -0.8 |
Sep-24 | 3.484 | -17.8 |
Oct-24 | 3.426 | -23.6 |
Dec-24 | 3.270 | -39.2 |
Jan-25 | 3.197 | -46.5 |
Mar-25 | 3.072 | -59.0 |
Apr-25 | 3.002 | -66.0 |
Jun-25 | 2.885 | -77.7 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. 2025 dates are estimated. |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.