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STIR: Euribor Dragged Lower By SONIA, October Cut Still Almost Fully Priced

STIR
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Euribor futures are +0.5 to -4.0 ticks through the blues, dragged lower by SONIA’s aggressive sell-off at the open. 

  • ECB-dated OIS continue to price a ~90% implied probability of a 25bp cut at the October 17 meeting, with last week’s strong US labour market report not enough to shift expectations for the next few ECB gatherings.
  • More notable adjustments have been seen further out, with 129bps of easing now priced through the June ’25 meeting (vs 136bps after Friday’s US data, and 146bps at last Thursday’s close).
  • Overnight, Banque de France’s Villeroy said that the ECB will “quite probably” cut rates in October and warned of the risk of inflation undershooting the ECB’s 2% target.
  • Today’s regional calendar is headlined by ECB Chief Economist Lane at 0845BST/0945CET, with Cipollone, Escriva and Nagel also scheduled to speak. The October Sentix survey and August retail sales will also be released.

 

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Euribor futures are +0.5 to -4.0 ticks through the blues, dragged lower by SONIA’s aggressive sell-off at the open. 

  • ECB-dated OIS continue to price a ~90% implied probability of a 25bp cut at the October 17 meeting, with last week’s strong US labour market report not enough to shift expectations for the next few ECB gatherings.
  • More notable adjustments have been seen further out, with 129bps of easing now priced through the June ’25 meeting (vs 136bps after Friday’s US data, and 146bps at last Thursday’s close).
  • Overnight, Banque de France’s Villeroy said that the ECB will “quite probably” cut rates in October and warned of the risk of inflation undershooting the ECB’s 2% target.
  • Today’s regional calendar is headlined by ECB Chief Economist Lane at 0845BST/0945CET, with Cipollone, Escriva and Nagel also scheduled to speak. The October Sentix survey and August retail sales will also be released.

 

Keep reading...Show less