STIR: Euribor Futures Follow US Peers Lower; ECB Cut Pricing Relatively Stable

Euribor futures follow US peers lower following the stronger-than-expected US labour market data, currently -3.5 to -8.5 ticks through the blues.

• Contracts are nonetheless off lows, as markets digest the higher-than-expected US unemployment rate.
• Hawkish repricing in ECB-dated OIS has been relatively modest, with 14bps of cuts still priced through the September meeting post-data.
• A reminder that the MNI policy team’s latest source piece indicated that a September rate cut remains in sight for the ECB, barring any data surprises.
• Year-end implied rates rose a little post-data, with OIS now showing 32bps of cuts through the remainder of 2024 (vs ~34bps pre-data).
• ECB speakers across the hawk-dove spectrum have continued to stick to the script seen around yesterday’s meeting (i.e. not providing any guidance around the future rate path). Even the dovish Centeno did not comment on the rate trajectory.