September 18, 2024 06:47 GMT
STIR: Euribor Futures Little Changed Ahead Of Fed Decision
STIR
Euribor futures are little changed versus yesterday’s settlement levels, having traded in a tight overnight range.
- UK August CPI was in line with consensus and had little impact on the space. Global focus remains on this evening’s Fed decision.
- ECB-dated OIS continue to price 7bps of cuts through the October meeting, and 37bps through year-end.
- The August EZ Indeed wage tracker (released yesterday afternoon) accelerated to 4.1% Y.Y (vs 3.9% prior), underscoring ECB preferences for a gradual (i.e. quarterly) easing cycle, for now.
- August final CPI is due at 1000BST/1100CET, with most focus as usual being on the ECB’s underlying inflation metrics.
- ECB’s Holzmann and Vujcic are scheduled to speak from a Financial Stability conference from 0800BST, with Muller also speaking at a separate event at that time. Bundesbank’s Nagel also speaks at 1200BST.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Cut-adjusted Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Oct-24 | 3.345 | -7.0 |
Dec-24 | 3.047 | -36.9 |
Jan-25 | 2.823 | -59.2 |
Mar-25 | 2.518 | -89.7 |
Apr-25 | 2.304 | -111.1 |
Jun-25 | 2.101 | -131.4 |
Jul-25 | 2.000 | -141.5 |
Sep-25 | 1.910 | -150.5 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
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