September 11, 2024 13:11 GMT
STIR: Euribor Futures Pare US CPI-Inspired Losses
STIR
Euribor futures have pared a good deal of US CPI-inspired losses, but remain 1.0 to 3.5 ticks below pre-data levels at typing. ERZ6 registered an intraday low of 97.965, but has since recovered back to 98.000.
- ECB-dated OIS price 62bps of easing through the remainder of 2024, sticking to recent ranges. This implies a ~50/50 probability of three 25bp cuts this year.
- The MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece continues to point to quarterly cuts as the base case amongst policymakers.
- Our ECB preview ahead of tomorrow’s meeting (where a 25bp cut is unanimously expected and fully priced) is here.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Sep-24 | 3.421 | -24.3 |
Oct-24 | 3.332 | -33.2 |
Dec-24 | 3.046 | -61.8 |
Jan-25 | 2.803 | -86.1 |
Mar-25 | 2.480 | -118.4 |
Apr-25 | 2.261 | -140.4 |
Jun-25 | 2.054 | -161.1 |
Jul-25 | 1.961 | -170.3 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
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