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STIR: Euribor Futures Pare US CPI-Inspired Losses

STIR

Euribor futures have pared a good deal of US CPI-inspired losses, but remain 1.0 to 3.5 ticks below pre-data levels at typing. ERZ6 registered an intraday low of 97.965, but has since recovered back to 98.000.

  • ECB-dated OIS price 62bps of easing through the remainder of 2024, sticking to recent ranges. This implies a ~50/50 probability of three 25bp cuts this year.
  • The MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece continues to point to quarterly cuts as the base case amongst policymakers.
  • Our ECB preview ahead of tomorrow’s meeting (where a 25bp cut is unanimously expected and fully priced) is here.

 

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Euribor futures have pared a good deal of US CPI-inspired losses, but remain 1.0 to 3.5 ticks below pre-data levels at typing. ERZ6 registered an intraday low of 97.965, but has since recovered back to 98.000.

  • ECB-dated OIS price 62bps of easing through the remainder of 2024, sticking to recent ranges. This implies a ~50/50 probability of three 25bp cuts this year.
  • The MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece continues to point to quarterly cuts as the base case amongst policymakers.
  • Our ECB preview ahead of tomorrow’s meeting (where a 25bp cut is unanimously expected and fully priced) is here.

 

Keep reading...Show less