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Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
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Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
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G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
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Emerging Markets
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Data
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Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
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About Us
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI ASIA MARKETS OPEN: Tsy Curves Reverse Course Ahead Wed CPI
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS:Waiting For Next Inflation Shoe Drop
Key Inter-Meeting Fed Speak – Dec 2024
US TREASURY AUCTION CALENDAR: Avg 3Y Sale
STIR: Euribor Futures Retrace Late-Friday Sell-off; ECB Cut Expected This Week
Euribor futures are little changed through the blues, with Friday’s post-settlement sell-off retraced.
- We didn’t see any meaningful news flow behind the late-Friday weakness, with EGBs also on the defensive.
- ECB-dated OIS contracts currently discount an ~85% probability of a 25bps rate cut at Thursday’s meeting, a move which has been heavily signalled by Governing Council members in recent weeks.
- The higher-than-expected Eurozone core inflation reading shouldn’t impact the delivery of this cut, but will factor into the ECB’s communication for the path of rates beyond June.
- OIS price 24bps of cumulative cuts through the July meeting (i.e. just ~2bps of sequential cuts post-June), and 56bps through the remainder of this year.
- Monday’s regional focus will be on the May manufacturing PMIs (final readings for larger nations & the Eurozone), where an improvement in sentiment across the region is expected to be confirmed.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Jun-24 | 3.676 | -21.6 |
Jul-24 | 3.654 | -23.8 |
Sep-24 | 3.510 | -38.2 |
Oct-24 | 3.461 | -43.2 |
Dec-24 | 3.337 | -55.5 |
To read the full story
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.