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STIR: Fed Rate Path Near Post-FOMC Dovish Lows, More Fedspeak Ahead

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen an additional helping hand lower from soft European PMIs to extend Friday’s slide on a dovish Waller.
  • It leaves a near-term rate path close to dovish extremes seen after last week’s FOMC announcement and SEP before a lift with Powell’s press conference.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 39bp Nov, 75bp Dec, 110bp Jan and 179bp June.
  • Today’s schedule sees three Fed speakers all for the first time since the FOMC. With Kashkari’s topic likely limiting a discussion on mon pol, it should be a case of a somewhat hawkish Bostic first before an out and out dovish Goolsbee later on. 

 

  • 0800ET – Bostic (’24 voter) speech on economic outlook (text + Q&A). He said Sep 4 that he saw risks to inflation and employment as now balanced but was not quite prepared to declare victory over inflation.
  • 1015ET – Goolsbee (’25) fireside chat on mon pol (text TBD). Goolsbee said Sep 6 that there was an overwhelming case for multiple rate cuts, that he saw more warning signs about the labor market and was concerned that tight policy is raising recession risk.
  • 1300ET – Kashkari (non) Q&A on childcare (no text)
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen an additional helping hand lower from soft European PMIs to extend Friday’s slide on a dovish Waller.
  • It leaves a near-term rate path close to dovish extremes seen after last week’s FOMC announcement and SEP before a lift with Powell’s press conference.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 39bp Nov, 75bp Dec, 110bp Jan and 179bp June.
  • Today’s schedule sees three Fed speakers all for the first time since the FOMC. With Kashkari’s topic likely limiting a discussion on mon pol, it should be a case of a somewhat hawkish Bostic first before an out and out dovish Goolsbee later on. 

 

  • 0800ET – Bostic (’24 voter) speech on economic outlook (text + Q&A). He said Sep 4 that he saw risks to inflation and employment as now balanced but was not quite prepared to declare victory over inflation.
  • 1015ET – Goolsbee (’25) fireside chat on mon pol (text TBD). Goolsbee said Sep 6 that there was an overwhelming case for multiple rate cuts, that he saw more warning signs about the labor market and was concerned that tight policy is raising recession risk.
  • 1300ET – Kashkari (non) Q&A on childcare (no text)