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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessSTIR: Flash Inflation Data In Focus; 43bps of ECB Cuts Priced Through ‘24
Flash June inflation data from France, Spain and Italy headlines today’s regional calendar.
- The evolution of services inflation over the coming months will be key for ECB policy.
- Our full Eurozone inflation data preview is here.
- ECB-dated OIS shows 19bps of cuts through the September meeting (~75% implied probability of a 25bp move) and 43bps of cumulative cuts through year end.
- Euribor futures are little changed on the day, after recovering a touch from US Presidential debate-inspired lows overnight.
- The ECB’s consumer expectations survey for May is due at 0900BST, while BdF’s Villeroy is scheduled to speak at 1100BST.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Jul-24 | 3.643 | -1.9 |
Sep-24 | 3.477 | -18.5 |
Oct-24 | 3.408 | -25.4 |
Dec-24 | 3.233 | -42.9 |
Jan-25 | 3.152 | -51.1 |
Mar-25 | 3.019 | -64.3 |
Apr-25 | 2.947 | -71.5 |
Jun-25 | 2.828 | -83.4 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. 2025 dates are estimated. |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.