MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: ECB Should Be Close To 2% In Next Quarters -Centeno

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI: US NOV IMPORT PRICES +0.1%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Flash PMIs Unlikely To Meaningfully Shift October Cut Probability

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Today’s regional calendar is headlined by the September flash PMIs. Consensus forecasts the French services reading to fall back to 53.1 after an Olympic-induced bounce to 55.0 in August. This is expected to pull down the Eurozone-wide services print to 52.3 (vs 52.9 prior).

  • The PMIs are one of the few pieces of Eurozone activity data that we will receive before the ECB’s October decision, but a weak set of readings are unlikely to tempt most policymakers into considering a cut at that gathering.
  • ECB-dated OIS price 5bps of easing through the October meeting (i.e. a 20% implied probability of a 25bp cut).
  • OIS continue to price a more aggressive pace of easing than that implied by quarterly cuts, with a cumulative 38bps priced through December, 91bps through March and 132bps through June.
  • The ECB’s Kazaks has re-iterated previous comments that Eurozone rates are on a downward trajectory.
  • Euribor futures are +2.0 to +5.0 ticks through the blues.

 

Keep reading...Show less
166 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Today’s regional calendar is headlined by the September flash PMIs. Consensus forecasts the French services reading to fall back to 53.1 after an Olympic-induced bounce to 55.0 in August. This is expected to pull down the Eurozone-wide services print to 52.3 (vs 52.9 prior).

  • The PMIs are one of the few pieces of Eurozone activity data that we will receive before the ECB’s October decision, but a weak set of readings are unlikely to tempt most policymakers into considering a cut at that gathering.
  • ECB-dated OIS price 5bps of easing through the October meeting (i.e. a 20% implied probability of a 25bp cut).
  • OIS continue to price a more aggressive pace of easing than that implied by quarterly cuts, with a cumulative 38bps priced through December, 91bps through March and 132bps through June.
  • The ECB’s Kazaks has re-iterated previous comments that Eurozone rates are on a downward trajectory.
  • Euribor futures are +2.0 to +5.0 ticks through the blues.

 

Keep reading...Show less