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STIR: Holding Bulk Of Latest Trimming In Cut Expectations

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are holding the surge higher on strong retail sales and a second consecutive surprise lower for initial jobless claims. 
  • Cumulative cuts: 33bp Sep, 62bp Nov, 95bp Dec, 118bp Jan and building to 174bp for June. 
  • The data slate wasn’t a clean sweep of beats though, with industrial production missing along with some sizeable downward revisions, Philly Fed manufacturing activity slipping and the NAHB housing market index falling to its lowest since Dec. 
  • Tomorrow sees the U.Mich preliminary August survey but firmer focus is more likely on next week’s schedule including preliminary payrolls revisions, FOMC minutes, initial jobless claims for a payrolls reference week, preliminary PMIs and then Chair Powell expected to speak on Friday. 

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