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STIR: Initial Hawkish Fed Pricing Move On JOLTS Fades

STIR
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Fed funds futures initially moved off dovish session extremes as firmer-than-expected JOLTS job opening data had greater impact than a softer-than-expected ISM manufacturing survey, given the Fed’s sensitivity to the labour market.

  • That move has started to fade, leaving ~37bp of cuts priced for Nov, ~74bp of cuts showing through year-end and ~172bp of cuts priced through June ’25.
  • Dovish moves were seen ahead of the data, as broader risk-off price action was driven by reports pointing to an impending Iranian missile launch on Israel.
  • Fed funds futures move back towards levels that prevailed ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Monday address, erasing most of the hawkish move that was seen ahead of yesterday’s close.
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Fed funds futures initially moved off dovish session extremes as firmer-than-expected JOLTS job opening data had greater impact than a softer-than-expected ISM manufacturing survey, given the Fed’s sensitivity to the labour market.

  • That move has started to fade, leaving ~37bp of cuts priced for Nov, ~74bp of cuts showing through year-end and ~172bp of cuts priced through June ’25.
  • Dovish moves were seen ahead of the data, as broader risk-off price action was driven by reports pointing to an impending Iranian missile launch on Israel.
  • Fed funds futures move back towards levels that prevailed ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Monday address, erasing most of the hawkish move that was seen ahead of yesterday’s close.