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STIR: Limited Dovish Spillover From BoE Bailey Comments

STIR
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The dovish adjustment in EUR STIRs over the past two weeks has limited the reaction to BoE Governor Bailey’s comments this morning (see our UK-specific posts for more colour there). Euribor futures are -1.5 to +0.5 ticks through the blues at typing.

  • There were several ECB speakers yesterday evening. Executive Board members’ Schnabel and de Guindos did little to push back on an October cut, while Centeno struck an unsurprisingly dovish tone.
  • The typically hawkish-leaning Vasle provided a slightly more cautious view, but even then did not exclude a rate cut in October.
  • ECB-dated OIS continue to price 23bps of easing through the October meeting and 152bps through the June 2025 gathering.
  • Today’s regional data calendar is headlined by the September services PMIs (finals for France, Germany and EZ). A reminder that the French flash PMI was 6.7 points lower than August’s print, as Olympic-related optimism unwound.

 

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The dovish adjustment in EUR STIRs over the past two weeks has limited the reaction to BoE Governor Bailey’s comments this morning (see our UK-specific posts for more colour there). Euribor futures are -1.5 to +0.5 ticks through the blues at typing.

  • There were several ECB speakers yesterday evening. Executive Board members’ Schnabel and de Guindos did little to push back on an October cut, while Centeno struck an unsurprisingly dovish tone.
  • The typically hawkish-leaning Vasle provided a slightly more cautious view, but even then did not exclude a rate cut in October.
  • ECB-dated OIS continue to price 23bps of easing through the October meeting and 152bps through the June 2025 gathering.
  • Today’s regional data calendar is headlined by the September services PMIs (finals for France, Germany and EZ). A reminder that the French flash PMI was 6.7 points lower than August’s print, as Olympic-related optimism unwound.

 

Keep reading...Show less