US NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 48.8 (FCST: 48.9); OCT 48.5

MNI:Largest Canada New Home Price Dip Since `09 Led By Toronto

CANADIAN OCT FLASH RETAIL SALES +0.7%, 4TH STRAIGHT INCREASE

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, November 22

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY345.9 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI BRIEF: Fed Should Explore Central Clearing At SRF-Hammack

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Gilt Syndi; IT, EU Due Monday

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL NOV INDEX 71.8

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Modest Hawkish Adjustments In BoE Pricing Following CPI

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

BoE-dated OIS is 0.5-2.0bp less dovish than levels seen at yesterday’s close, pricing ~4bp of cuts for this week, ~49bp of cuts through year end and ~136bp of easing through June ’25.

  • SONIA futures are flat to -2.0.
  • Local CPI data matched consensus.
  • The lack of downside surprise in the data resulted in hawkish adjustments, likely driven by an unwind of some of the recent build-up of dovish positioning, which itself was linked to moves on the SOFR strip
  • Our macro team’s initial reaction to the data noted that this is as close to consensus (for CPI) as we have had for some time, so should have little impact on the MPC decision tomorrow - or in the medium-term. https://marketnews.com/uk-data-cpi-as-close-to-consensus-as-possible-little-impact-for-mpc
  • We had had already suggested that the BoE would likely look through today’s data, unless an unanticipated driver came to the fore.
  • Today’s FOMC decision is set to have greater impact on GBP STIRs than the domestic CPI release, given the unusually balanced pricing (between a 25 & 50bp cut) heading into the U.S. central bank’s decision.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less
181 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

BoE-dated OIS is 0.5-2.0bp less dovish than levels seen at yesterday’s close, pricing ~4bp of cuts for this week, ~49bp of cuts through year end and ~136bp of easing through June ’25.

  • SONIA futures are flat to -2.0.
  • Local CPI data matched consensus.
  • The lack of downside surprise in the data resulted in hawkish adjustments, likely driven by an unwind of some of the recent build-up of dovish positioning, which itself was linked to moves on the SOFR strip
  • Our macro team’s initial reaction to the data noted that this is as close to consensus (for CPI) as we have had for some time, so should have little impact on the MPC decision tomorrow - or in the medium-term. https://marketnews.com/uk-data-cpi-as-close-to-consensus-as-possible-little-impact-for-mpc
  • We had had already suggested that the BoE would likely look through today’s data, unless an unanticipated driver came to the fore.
  • Today’s FOMC decision is set to have greater impact on GBP STIRs than the domestic CPI release, given the unusually balanced pricing (between a 25 & 50bp cut) heading into the U.S. central bank’s decision.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less