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STIR: Modest Hawkish Adjustments In EUR STIRs Post NFP

STIR
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Euribor futures are -4.0 to -14.0 ticks through the blues following the stronger-than-expected US labour market report. 

  • The back of the whites/front of the reds continue to lead the sell-off: ERZ5 found support at the 98.000 handle post-data, but is still -13.5 ticks today at 98.035.
  • ECB-dated OIS has seen modest hawkish adjustments, but there remains an ~85% implied probability of a 25bp cut in October.
  • Implied cuts through the June ’25 meeting are now 144bs (vs ~150bps pre-data).
  • ECB-speak headlines next week’s regional calendar, with no major data releases to note ahead of the October 17 ECB meeting (retail sales, IP and the Bank Lending Survey are not traditionally big market movers).

 

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Euribor futures are -4.0 to -14.0 ticks through the blues following the stronger-than-expected US labour market report. 

  • The back of the whites/front of the reds continue to lead the sell-off: ERZ5 found support at the 98.000 handle post-data, but is still -13.5 ticks today at 98.035.
  • ECB-dated OIS has seen modest hawkish adjustments, but there remains an ~85% implied probability of a 25bp cut in October.
  • Implied cuts through the June ’25 meeting are now 144bs (vs ~150bps pre-data).
  • ECB-speak headlines next week’s regional calendar, with no major data releases to note ahead of the October 17 ECB meeting (retail sales, IP and the Bank Lending Survey are not traditionally big market movers).

 

Keep reading...Show less