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STIR: Modest Hawkish Move In Fed Prices Following ISM survey

STIR
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Contained hawkish reaction in the ISM services survey, with the contraction in the employment sub-index limiting the initial move, given the Fed’s sensitivity to further deterioration in the labour market.

  • Risk-off trade surrounding the potential Israeli reaction to the Iranian missile attack then starts to counter the data-driven move.
  • Fed Funds futures now price 34bp of cuts for November, 67bp of cuts through December and 155.5bp of cuts through June.
  • That compares to 34.5, 69.5bp and 158bp ahead of the data.
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Contained hawkish reaction in the ISM services survey, with the contraction in the employment sub-index limiting the initial move, given the Fed’s sensitivity to further deterioration in the labour market.

  • Risk-off trade surrounding the potential Israeli reaction to the Iranian missile attack then starts to counter the data-driven move.
  • Fed Funds futures now price 34bp of cuts for November, 67bp of cuts through December and 155.5bp of cuts through June.
  • That compares to 34.5, 69.5bp and 158bp ahead of the data.