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STIR: Near Term ECB Pricing Little Changed Today, Schnabel Eyed At 1745BST

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Today’s pullback in global core FI has not driven any meaningful hawkish adjustments in near-term ECB pricing, with OIS implied rates little changed today.  ECB Executive Board member Schnabel is scheduled to speak at 1745BST/1845CET on “Escaping stagnation: the path to a stronger euro area”. 

  • The speech may prove an important gauge of Schnabel’s current policy stance, particularly after one of her slide decks last week featured slightly more dovish messaging compared to previous iterations (see here for details).
  • Today’s other ECB speakers did not add much new to the policy debate: VP de Guindos re-iterated that growth risks remain tilted to the downside, while there were no accompanying headlines to Chief Economist Lane’s slide deck on “Expectations and Monetary Policy”.
  • ECB-dated OIS price 24bps of easing through the October 17 meeting and 152bps of cuts through June 2025.
  • The Euribor strip has steepened today, with blues -5.5 to -6.5 ticks today.
  • Tomorrow’s regional calendar is headlined by the September services PMIs (final for France, Germany and EZ). 

 

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Today’s pullback in global core FI has not driven any meaningful hawkish adjustments in near-term ECB pricing, with OIS implied rates little changed today.  ECB Executive Board member Schnabel is scheduled to speak at 1745BST/1845CET on “Escaping stagnation: the path to a stronger euro area”. 

  • The speech may prove an important gauge of Schnabel’s current policy stance, particularly after one of her slide decks last week featured slightly more dovish messaging compared to previous iterations (see here for details).
  • Today’s other ECB speakers did not add much new to the policy debate: VP de Guindos re-iterated that growth risks remain tilted to the downside, while there were no accompanying headlines to Chief Economist Lane’s slide deck on “Expectations and Monetary Policy”.
  • ECB-dated OIS price 24bps of easing through the October 17 meeting and 152bps of cuts through June 2025.
  • The Euribor strip has steepened today, with blues -5.5 to -6.5 ticks today.
  • Tomorrow’s regional calendar is headlined by the September services PMIs (final for France, Germany and EZ). 

 

Keep reading...Show less