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STIR: RBA Dated OIS Prices 40% Change Of Year-End Cut Ahead Of RBA Decision

STIR
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Ahead of today’s RBA Policy Decision, RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps softer for 2025 meetings. Bloomberg consensus is unanimously expecting a no-change outcome. 

  • The market attaches an 8% probability to a 25bps easing today.
  • Following the decision and statement at 1430 AEST, RBA Governor Bullock will hold a press conference at 1530 AEST. She last spoke on September 5 and since then survey data have been soft but labour market and lending data strong. So, we don’t expect that the Board has changed its view that it is too soon to discuss rate cuts.
  • A cumulative 15bps of easing is priced by year-end.

 

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Ahead of today’s RBA Policy Decision, RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps softer for 2025 meetings. Bloomberg consensus is unanimously expecting a no-change outcome. 

  • The market attaches an 8% probability to a 25bps easing today.
  • Following the decision and statement at 1430 AEST, RBA Governor Bullock will hold a press conference at 1530 AEST. She last spoke on September 5 and since then survey data have been soft but labour market and lending data strong. So, we don’t expect that the Board has changed its view that it is too soon to discuss rate cuts.
  • A cumulative 15bps of easing is priced by year-end.

 

Keep reading...Show less