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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessSTIR: Sep ECB Cut Still Fully Discounted
Euribor sees a modest rally on softer than-expected UK CPI data, leaving contracts flat to +1.5 through the blues.
- Meanwhile, ECB-dated OIS prices ~25bp of easing for the Bank’s September meeting and ~72bp through year end, little changed vs. yesterday’s closing levels.
- This remains more aggressive than the one cut per quarter preference that several ECB GC members currently hold.
- A reminder that the dovish Fed repricing seen in recent weeks has been the dominant factor for EUR STIRs, as opposed to a meaningful shift in Eurozone economic fundamentals/ECB rhetoric.
- Eurozone GDP and industrial production data headline the regional calendar today, although it will be U.S. CPI data that garners the bulk of broader market focus
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Sep-24 | 3.412 | -25.2 |
Oct-24 | 3.247 | -41.7 |
Dec-24 | 2.945 | -71.9 |
Jan-25 | 2.746 | -91.8 |
Mar-25 | 2.519 | -114.6 |
Apr-25 | 2.401 | -126.3 |
Jun-25 | 2.239 | -142.5 |
Jun-25 | 2.220 | -144.4 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.