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STIR: Shifting To Almost Completely 50/50 For Fed Cutting 25bp or 50bp Today

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have continued to push higher ahead of the FOMC decision, trimming cut expectations to 38.7bps for today’s meeting vs 42bps early yesterday.
  • There haven’t been any notable headlines behind the moves.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 38.7bp Sep, 75bp Nov, 112bp Dec, 148bp Jan and 220bp June.
  • You can see the impact that the dovish "close call" articles from the WSJ and FT had on near-term rate expectations in the table below.
  • FOMC-dated OIS broadly maintains its recent spread, implying 35.8bp of cuts for today’s meeting.
  • No matter which measure you use, the realization of a 25bp or 50bp cut will see the largest absolute ‘surprise’ from the Fed in years. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have continued to push higher ahead of the FOMC decision, trimming cut expectations to 38.7bps for today’s meeting vs 42bps early yesterday.
  • There haven’t been any notable headlines behind the moves.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 38.7bp Sep, 75bp Nov, 112bp Dec, 148bp Jan and 220bp June.
  • You can see the impact that the dovish "close call" articles from the WSJ and FT had on near-term rate expectations in the table below.
  • FOMC-dated OIS broadly maintains its recent spread, implying 35.8bp of cuts for today’s meeting.
  • No matter which measure you use, the realization of a 25bp or 50bp cut will see the largest absolute ‘surprise’ from the Fed in years.