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STIR: SONIA Futures Little Changed Vs. Late Wednesday Levels

STIR
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SONIA futures flat to -2.5, off opening lows as Bunds stabilise above Asia-Pac lows.

  • Recoveries in oil and equities weighed on SONIA futures/core global FI into the close on Wednesday.
  • BoE-dated OIS essentially flat, showing ~49bp of cuts through year-end and ~134bp of cuts through Jun ’25.
  • Goldman Sachs have moved their BoE call to sequential cuts from quarterly, looking for the same terminal rate of 3.00%, but now expect that to come in Q325 vs. Q326 previously.
  • Goldman now has greater confidence surrounding cooling wage growth and look for significant progress on the services inflation front in coming quarters.
  • This outlook, coupled with their expectations for “robust” GDP growth, leads to them remaining constructive on gilts, GBP and UK equities.
  • Spill over from the ECB decision (25bp cut unanimously expected, focus on accompanying rhetoric) and U.S. data (PPI & weekly jobless claims) is set to dominate today.

BoE Meeting

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SONIA futures flat to -2.5, off opening lows as Bunds stabilise above Asia-Pac lows.

  • Recoveries in oil and equities weighed on SONIA futures/core global FI into the close on Wednesday.
  • BoE-dated OIS essentially flat, showing ~49bp of cuts through year-end and ~134bp of cuts through Jun ’25.
  • Goldman Sachs have moved their BoE call to sequential cuts from quarterly, looking for the same terminal rate of 3.00%, but now expect that to come in Q325 vs. Q326 previously.
  • Goldman now has greater confidence surrounding cooling wage growth and look for significant progress on the services inflation front in coming quarters.
  • This outlook, coupled with their expectations for “robust” GDP growth, leads to them remaining constructive on gilts, GBP and UK equities.
  • Spill over from the ECB decision (25bp cut unanimously expected, focus on accompanying rhetoric) and U.S. data (PPI & weekly jobless claims) is set to dominate today.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less