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Stock Drawdown Skews GDP Risks To Downside, More Data Tuesday

AUSTRALIA DATA

Q4 business indicators surprised with profits rising more than expected but inventories lower than forecast. Stocks fell 1.7% q/q after a 1.2% rise in Q3, which is likely to mean that they were a drag on Q4 GDP, which is released on March 6. Bloomberg consensus expected no change in inventories and so the surprise to the downside means that risks to the 0.3% q/q forecast rise are skewed to the downside at the moment. But the net export contribution and government spending data are released tomorrow.

  • The drop in inventories was predominantly driven by the mining sector (-5.5% q/q) but retail, wholesale and manufacturing all saw stock drawdowns too.
Australia inventories %

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

  • Profits rose 7.4% q/q but are still down 5.4% y/y in Q4 after declining the previous two quarters. The pickup was driven by the mining sector which saw profits rise 17.3% q/q.
  • The growth in wage costs eased which also supported profits in Q4. Total wages rose 0.9% q/q to be up 8% y/y, the lowest quarterly rise since Q3 2021, after +3% and 9.8% in Q3 respectively boosted by the increase in minimum and award wages. The slowdown in Q4 is likely to reflect lower growth in hours worked.
Australia total wages %

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

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