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Free AccessStock Drawdown Skews GDP Risks To Downside, More Data Tuesday
Q4 business indicators surprised with profits rising more than expected but inventories lower than forecast. Stocks fell 1.7% q/q after a 1.2% rise in Q3, which is likely to mean that they were a drag on Q4 GDP, which is released on March 6. Bloomberg consensus expected no change in inventories and so the surprise to the downside means that risks to the 0.3% q/q forecast rise are skewed to the downside at the moment. But the net export contribution and government spending data are released tomorrow.
- The drop in inventories was predominantly driven by the mining sector (-5.5% q/q) but retail, wholesale and manufacturing all saw stock drawdowns too.
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- Profits rose 7.4% q/q but are still down 5.4% y/y in Q4 after declining the previous two quarters. The pickup was driven by the mining sector which saw profits rise 17.3% q/q.
- The growth in wage costs eased which also supported profits in Q4. Total wages rose 0.9% q/q to be up 8% y/y, the lowest quarterly rise since Q3 2021, after +3% and 9.8% in Q3 respectively boosted by the increase in minimum and award wages. The slowdown in Q4 is likely to reflect lower growth in hours worked.
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.