Strikes Could Push Europe Natgas Prices To €100/MWh: Goldman Sachs

European natural gas prices could hit EUR100/MWh if Australian LNG strikes take place and cause maximum disruption, Goldman Sachs said in a note Aug. 22

• “Importantly, because a strike-related LNG supply disruption would have no clear end-date, and because of how close we already are to next winter, we would expect European gas prices to look for the maximum amount of demand substitution away from natural gas, which would likely take TTF toward the 70-101 EUR gas-to-oil substitution range,” the note said.
• Hitting this limit would require both the strikes to take place and all export flows to be curtailed, neither of which is guaranteed, the bank said.
• The three facilities threatening to strike have a total export capacity of 150 mcm/d.