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Strong ADP Report With Surprising Weakness In Small Businesses

DATA REACT
  • ADP added a stronger than expected 475k jobs in Feb (cons 375K) with a very large upward revision to Jan that appears confirmation of the surprisingly strong payrolls print (up from -301k to +509k).
  • There were strong gains in both goods and services sectors, but small businesses of <50 employees saw a decline of -96k, the first decline since Apr'20.
  • Short-dated Treasuries rise 1.5bps and BBDXY firms marginally but limited correlation with payrolls limits impact.

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