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Struggles Above $1.3900 but Underlying Tone Buoyant

GBP
MNI (London)
  • GBP pared its early Tuesday losses, GBP/USD managed to recover off a low of $1.3809 to a post 1600GMT fix high of $1.3906 before closing the day around $1.3892. Move seen as earlier EUR strength reversed.
  • EUR/GBP, which had pushed back above its key 10-dma in early Europe was able to close back below(Gbp0.8584, close Gbp0.8567) after GBP recovered. The close below the 10-dma seen keeping recent GBP buoyancy in place.
  • GBP/USD retested the $1.3906 recovery high at the Tokyo open before rate settled between $1.3878/98 through the balance of the session, challenging the topside into Europe.
  • Resistance $1.3906/07(Mar16-17 high/50% $1.4005-1.3809), a break of $1.3915 to expose the $1.3930/60 area. Support $1.3878, $1.3850, $1.3810/00, the latter area protecting against a deeper move toward $1.3779/76.
  • A light calendar for the UK Wednesday, domestic focus rests on Thursday's BOE MPC monetary policy announcement.
  • For today main interest seen on US FOMC rate announcement 1800GMT with main interest in Fed Powell's press conference at 1830GMT. Market will look for any clearer push back on recent yield rise, growth/inflation forecasts and the Dot plot for any signal for a hike in 2023.
  • MNI Techs: GBPUSD short-term outlook remains bearish following the sell-off between Feb 24 - Mar 5. Attention is on support at 1.3779, Mar 5 low ahead of a key bull channel support that intersects at 1.3778 today. The channel is drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. A clear break of both these levels would represent an important short-term reversal. This would open the 1.3600 handle and below. Firm resistance is at 1.4005, Mar 12 high.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com

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