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Summary – April 08

LATAM
  • Following two months of strong CPI data, Chile CPI inflation is expected to slow to 3.9% y/y in March, from 4.5%. Also on Monday, Chile March trade data will be released, while Brazil vehicle sales data for March will cross. In Argentina, the central bank will publish its monthly expectations survey. Elsewhere, the schedule for Monday is muted, with few datapoints for markets to digest ahead of the US CPI report on Wednesday. Central banks are similarly quiet, although the Fed's Goolsbee is set to make an appearance.
  • USD - The USD takes up the midpoint of the G10 table so far Monday, shrugging off a continued rise in the US 10y yield, which rose to another recovery high at 4.4520% today as markets continue to gravitate toward fewer Fed rate cuts this year than initially envisaged. Just over 2 x 25bp rate cuts are now priced for this calendar year, down from over seven rate cuts priced at the beginning of 2024.
  • Global News:
    • ISRAEL - Military officials said on Sunday that Israel is pulling some troops out of the city of Khan Younis in Gaza, saying it had ended its mission there as the war against Hamas reached the six-month mark. Israel said its 98th Commando Division had moved out of Khan Younis and the Gaza Strip “to recuperate and prepare for future operations.”
    • US / CHINA - President Biden will warn China that a US defence treaty with the Philippines covers a maritime outpost that’s become a focus of Beijing’s aggression, the Financial Times reported, effectively drawing a red line amid rising tensions in the South China Sea. The US president will use a visit this week by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to express serious concerns regarding ongoing tensions around Second Thomas Shoal, where Chinese vessels regularly collide with Philippine ships, the FT reported.
    • CHINA - China stuck to a pattern of keeping yuan weakness contained as pressure from a resilient dollar and poor investor sentiment pushes it toward a policy red line. The PBoC kept its daily reference rate for the managed currency broadly unchanged, implying to traders that yuan stability is key.
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