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Summary – August 30

LATAM
  • Brazil budget balance figures for July will be published on Friday, followed by July unemployment data. In Chile, latest activity data will be released, including retail sales, IP and copper production, while in Mexico July outstanding loans will cross. Colombia will also publish July unemployment figures, while BanRep holds a non-monetary policy board meeting.
  • In the US, PCE data takes focus in the session ahead, with markets expecting both the headline and core PCE price indices to hold steady at 0.2% m/m, and both above 2.5% on a y/y basis. MNI Chicago PMI is set to follow, with expectations of continued weak growth likely to help lay the groundwork for next week's run of ISM and NFP data.
  • Global news:
    • US – Vice President Kamala Harris said helping address economic woes and bolstering the middle class would be her day one priority, in her critical first interview since capturing the Democratic presidential nomination. “I think that people are ready for a new way forward, in a way that generations of Americans have been fuelled by hope and by optimism,” Harris told CNN, adding that she believed voters were ready “to turn the page” on former President Donald Trump.
    • EU (MNI) – One of the most hawkish ECB Executive Board members Schnabel provided an unsurprisingly cautious outlook for monetary policy, continuing to advocate for policy to "proceed gradually and cautiously", particularly as rates approach "the upper band of estimates of the neutral rate". Schnabel highlighted higher than expected unit labour costs, stronger wage pass-through and the impact of geopolitical uncertainty/protectionism.
    • CHINA – The PBoC started trading its government bonds in a highly anticipated move, as a blistering rally sent benchmark yields to a record low. The PBoC sold long-dated bonds and bought short-term ones, an operation that resulted in a net purchase of CNY 100bn ($14bn) of debt in August, according to a statement on its website. It didn’t specify the tenors or dates it bought or sold.
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